Scripturient

Scripturient

Old school – writing in 2012

African Spring 1

African Spring: Myth or Reality

Kampala, February 12, 2012

Paraphrasing and translating the wikipedia definition (1) of Arab Spring to African Spring would lead to the following: A revolutionary wave with demonstrations and protests occurring in the Arab world or better North African world that began on Saturday, 18 December 2010. To date, there have been revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt; a civil war in Libya resulting in the fall of the country’s government; and there are current demonstrations in Sudan (2), Nigeria (3) also known as Occupy Nigeria and Senegal (4) (M23 Mouvement Juin 23). Use of social media networks like Facebook and Twitter are pivotal to communicate the message as is a host of methods; strikes, peaceful demonstrations, occupation of important places and flashmobs.

Demonstrations are not new to Africa as George Lakey demonstrates in an article (5) on how an African Spring has already taken place in the early nineties in seven Sub Saharan nations and much earlier as reported by the Huffington Post (3) the example is given of demonstrations led by Igbo market women in Nigeria in 1929.

Nothing new under the sun therefore?

The demonstration in Sudan are minute compared to the other examples. In December 2011 the University of Khartoum was temporarily shut down because of student demonstrations and currently demonstrators gather and disperse within minutes before security forces can intervene.

The current Occupy Nigeria took off when the Government decided to remove the subsidy on petrol by January 1st. What followed was a string of protests, demonstrations and a massive strike within a week involving many different groups in many locations in the country communicating through social media network. Within two weeks the Government of Nigeria had to at least partially back down on this issue.

M23 started on June 23, 2011 when the Constitutional Court in Senegal allowed the octogenarian Abdoulaye Wade to run for a third presidential term despite the Constitution forbidding more than two consecutive terms. Our 85 year old may be aiming to replace Hastings Banda, former president of Malawi at the top of the list for oldest presidents ever. Just 11 years to go however and President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has a two year head start. Another more likely motive is his nepotism to install the current Super Minister Karim Wade being his son after the coming term. To aid in that popular candidate Youssouf N’Dour has been banned from the election. Protests are ongoing in Dakar.

Here in Uganda we have President Yoweri Museveni who came to power in 1986 and twenty six years later still is. Over the last year or two we have had series of strikes of teachers, market vendors, doctors and taxi drivers. Also there has been the Walk-to-Work campaign (7). Yet on talking with Ugandans from all walks of life the responses to an African Spring in Uganda are lukewarm mostly.

With repressive measures in place, preemptive arrests of demonstrators, blocking of routes of protest, use of tear gas, mass military deployment in capitals around the continent, blocking of Internet access it is hard to see flower revolutions taking place in Africa. Rulers in love with power. do not help either. With Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia (20), Idriss Deby, Chad (21), Omar El Bashir, Sudan (22), Blaise Compaore, Burkina Faso (24), Yoweri Museveni, Uganda (26), Paul Biya, Cameroon (29), Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe (31), Jose Eduardo Dos Santos, Angola (32), Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbaso, Equatorial Guinea (32) Africa has plenty of sit-tight-rulers (6) even when losing the trio Muammar Khaddafi, Libya (41), Hosni Mubarak, Egypt (30) and Zine El Abdine Ben Ali, Tunesia (23)

Yet as in any peaceful revolution once the demonstrators overcome the fear of the security apparatus, be it army, police or secret service. And when those armed and sent to protect the status quo realize that it are their own brothers and sisters demonstrating they may lay down their arms as has been seen in Tunesia and Egypt. Magic may happen. Thoughts from Nigerian Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka: “Aging African presidents who try to cling to power by manipulating constitutions and judiciaries risk the same popular rebellions that toppled rulers in last year’s Arab Spring.” (6) add to the hope for positive and peaceful change for the continent.

Posted 12th February 2012 by African Spring